Two years after the media moment known as "The Reveal" and six months after making its consumer debut on amazon.com, the Segway Human Transporter (HT) is trying to figure out what it's going to be when it grows up. Is it the epitome of geek chic, or the most elegant improvement to transportation since the automobile?

Is it just the latest example of high-tech excess, or a revolutionary solution to vehicular pollution?

Although observers don't necessarily concur on what ultimate role the Segway will play in solving emissions and traffic ills, they've uniformly agreed on one thing: It's a clever piece of engineering that is a kick to use – yielding a feeling that inventor Dean Kamen describes as having "magic sneakers."

Using a technology the company calls "dynamic stabilization," the lawnmower-looking Segway HT reacts to the rider's movements in a seemingly intuitive fashion. The device can pivot in place, with each wheel moving independently, and it is self-balancing, thanks to gyroscopes and tilt sensors monitoring your center of gravity at about 100 times a second. Battery powered, with a top speed of 12.5 mph and range of up to 15 miles, the Segway tips the scales at 80 pounds, though you'd never guess it from how nimble the machine feels.

Going Postal and Beyond

While commercial use hasn't been as widespread as originally hoped, the U.S. Postal Service bought 40 of the commercial-version transporters for about $8,000 each earlier this year, while cities such as Atlanta, Seattle, Boston and Los Angeles have employed them for a variety of uses, including downtown ambassador programs, meter readers and law enforcement. Development partners Michelin North America (which manufactures the scooter's 14-inch tires), Delphi (circuit boards and user interface) and GE Plastics (high-performance engineering thermoplastics) use Segways in their manufacturing facilities to improve worker productivity, plant navigation and maneuverability.

If the Segway is to truly take off, however, it needs to do so under the feet of the average U.S. consumer. In addition to its cruise ships and theme parks, Disney's Celebration, Fla., master-planned community has become a proving ground for the average user.

"Out of thousands of demos," says Claudine Andrews, VP of NEVrland, Inc., a Celebration-based electric vehicle dealer, "every person has gotten off with a smile." According to Andrews, it was natural for Segway to focus on Celebration for a test-market study because of its infrastructure and an existing affinity for alternative transportation. Indeed, within the first few weeks, 10 percent of community homes had purchased a Segway. (Users completing the full-year study will receive a partial refund of the $4,950 purchase price.)

While describing the local response as overwhelming, Andrews tries to be realistic about the Segway's impact on a wider scale. "In this community and ones similar to it, the Segway can allow people to eliminate their second vehicle," she says. "When you find the location and application that it works for, such as a single person commuting to work, a high-schooler going to school, or getting around a resort destination, this is a great solution."

Another interesting application is the Segway-as-dinghy for commuters who need to drive into town. Revealed at the 2003 Geneva Auto Show, the Bertone Birusa BMW-based concept car stows a suped-up Segway – outfitted with lights, a navigation unit and a Bose stereo system – into a specially designed rear port.

Practical and Legal Concerns

So far, though, not everyone has wanted to roll into the future. Segway officials won't reveal revenues or unit sales, saying simply that the Segway HT has sold consistently in the top 200 products in amazon.com's electronics store since it went on sale in November 2002. Nonetheless, launching during a downturn in the economy, company forecasts of manufacturing tens of thousands of machines a week at the Manchester, N.H., facility by the end of 2002 failed to materialize. Similarly, venture capitalist and investor John Doerr's predictions about the company's fastest-in-history rise to $1 billion in sales remain a tall order. (That's approximately 200,000 scooters sold at the current amazon.com price of just under $5,000.)

The company also experienced some street fights – literally – from lawyers waiting to put the brakes on before the product was even launched. Reluctant to have the Segway sharing sidewalks with pedestrians, San Francisco was the first large city to nix the two-wheelers. Despite that visible rebuke, as of April 2003 the company had successfully lobbied 34 states and the District of Columbia to enact legislation to allow use of Segways on sidewalks, bike paths and certain roads under the label of "Electric Personal Assistive Mobility Device" or "Personal Motorized Mobility Device."

What might help make the vehicle more popular, though, are the Segway rental proprietors popping up around the country. For anywhere from $35 to $50, you can lease the use of a Segway for part of a day. Rentals are also predicted to be a hot ticket at conventions and trade shows and onboard cruise ships.

Greater Expectations?

Described by Time magazine as a blend of Thomas Edison and Willy Wonka, Segway LLC chairman Dean Kamen had made his mark in the healthcare field and amassed more than 150 U.S. and foreign patents prior to the Segway whirlwind. Among his more notable inventions were the world's first wearable drug-infusion pump, the technology at the heart of Baxter's HomeChoice dialysis machine and Johnson & Johnson's Crown Stent intravascular stent.

But it was another project developed for Johnson & Johnson that sparked Kamen's next big idea. The Independence IBOT – essentially an all-terrain wheelchair that can climb stairs – planted the creative seed for what would become the Segway. (It was also the genesis for the Segway's pre-launch code name "Ginger," punning on the IBOT's nickname of "Fred Upstairs" for its grace in ascension.) Importing the same self-balancing technology into personal transportation seemed a natural. Kamen sought to transform the most basic form of transportation with his zero-emission creation.

And that's where things started to get interesting.

Apple's CEO Steven Jobs and CEO of amazon.com Jeff Bezos were widely quoted as saying that "It" – which the media picked up as the nickname for Kamen's secret invention – would transform society and that cities would be built around "It," while cryptic drawings and speculation seeped into every news outlet.

The story of the Segway launch, in a sense, is about the power of conjecture and secrecy, and how reality unfolds while the media stumbles all over itself to "get the scoop." If anything, it's amazing that the Segway was able to remain a secret for so long – it was in development for nearly a decade before Kamen acquired nearly $100 million in funding. For his part, Kamen tried to downplay the frenzy, which is "exactly what he didn't want," according to a company spokesperson.

Headier speculation about "It" pointed toward everything from development of consumer-level fuel cells to a personal hovercraft. So is the Segway "It"? Maybe. Maybe not.

At the heart of the ongoing conjecture about what the world-changing invention might actually be is a comment made by Robert Metcalfe, the co-inventor of the Ethernet office networking standard and a friend of Kamen, who told The New York Times, "Some months ago when speculation was running high, I said that Kamen's 'It' was more important than the Internet, but not as important as cold fusion, had cold fusion worked out. The 'It' I was talking about, which I did not disclose, was not Segway. That's all I can say."

So is there an undisclosed "It" still out there? Hard to say. What can be said is that Kamen himself has gone on record that a Stirling cycle engine (a lightweight, highly efficient and very quiet engine that can run on multiple types of fuel) may be incorporated into a future iteration of the Segway. Even separate from the vehicle, such an engine could be used as a superior way to charge the batteries and run lights or a computer. Kamen filed a patent application for the engine in 1998.

In addition to generating electricity, a second intriguing aspect to the Stirling engine is its knack for distilling contaminated water into potable form. Globally, with about 1.1 billion people without access to safe water and about 1.6 billion without access to power, the "killer app" for Kamen's technology might just be in undeveloped regions of the world, regardless of what happens on self-balancing scooters in the mean streets of America.

"Life is really short," Kamen said to 60 Minutes' Dan Rather. "I can't waste any of it on things that aren't important. If I get up in the morning, I know I'm going to work hard. I don't get a lot of time for vacation. I don't enjoy doing silly, nonsensical things."

In the final analysis, market forces will dictate whether the Segway is an idea that's ahead of its time, one whose time may never come or if it will serve as a stepping stone to further technological marvels. This much is for certain: If the Segway fails to change the world, it won't be for lack of brains, money or passion.

Studied in Seattle

To date, one of the most comprehensive field studies of the Segway was commissioned by the city of Seattle's Fleets and Facilities Division in cooperation with Seattle Public Utilities. A 26-page cost-analysis report (available in PDF form at www.cityofseattle.net/fleets) summarizes the testing and evaluation of the Segway by water-meter readers that started in October 2002.

In concluding that the economic benefits outweigh the vehicle costs, maintenance and route redesigns, the study cites rapid improvements in route efficiency and therefore reduced labor costs, as well as a positive environmental impact from reduced vehicle emissions. Even more promising, the information gathered indicates that other city services that require vehicles, walking, lifting or carrying heavy items may derive comparable benefits.

Terry Leers, a faulty member at University of Phoenix's Washington campus and a Boeing employee, took a test spin on the Segway when representatives were in Seattle at the aerospace company giving demo rides. "Our R & D folks were looking at the possibility of bringing them into the company," Leers says. "I was really impressed at how intuitive and easy to control the scooters are. I was a little hard pressed to justify buying my own, though. I am still unconvinced that the product is solving a real business problem. I think it fits more into a personal needs category such as ego, status and recreation. But time will tell."